{"id":10171,"date":"2026-09-12T17:33:48","date_gmt":"2026-09-12T14:33:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alrasly.com\/?page_id=10171"},"modified":"2026-09-12T17:37:44","modified_gmt":"2026-09-12T14:37:44","slug":"savings-goal-calculator","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/alrasly.com\/en\/tools\/savings-goal-calculator\/","title":{"rendered":"Savings Goal Calculator"},"content":{"rendered":"<!-- \/en\/tools\/savings-goal-calculator \u2014 built by build\/scripts\/en-tools-six.php.\n     Thin by design: ~40 searches a month sit behind five of these six, so the\n     page exists to give the English index somewhere English to point, not to\n     rank. Do not grow it into long-form without volume to justify it. -->\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull alrasly-gsec has-ground-background-color has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60)\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Savings goal calculator<\/h1>\n\n\n<p class=\"alrasly-answer wp-block-paragraph\">Say how much you want and when you want it, and the calculator gives you the monthly amount that gets you there \u2014 with the probability attached. It answers with a range rather than one confident figure, because a single number about the future is a guess wearing a suit.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull alrasly-gsec has-ground-alt-background-color has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60)\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"alrasly-tool\" id=\"calculator\" data-tool=\"goal-planner\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"\u062d\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u062f\u0641\"><noscript><p>\u0647\u0630\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0627\u0629 \u062a\u062d\u062a\u0627\u062c \u062c\u0627\u0641\u0627\u0633\u0643\u0631\u0628\u062a \u0639\u0634\u0627\u0646 \u062a\u0634\u062a\u063a\u0644. \u0641\u0639\u0651\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0635\u0641\u062d \u0648\u0623\u0639\u062f \u062a\u062d\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u062d\u0629.<\/p><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull alrasly-gsec has-ground-background-color has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60)\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What it does<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It runs thousands of possible paths at the risk level you choose, and reports the monthly amount needed at three of them: the middle outcome, the one that usually works, and the cautious one. You can add known one-off amounts \u2014 an end-of-service payment, a bonus, a property sale \u2014 in the year they arrive.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull alrasly-gsec has-ground-alt-background-color has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60)\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to read the result<\/h2>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Plan on the 80% figure, not the middle one.<\/strong> The middle figure is what happens if everything runs about average, and things do not run about average.<\/li><li><strong>More risk lowers the middle number and widens the spread.<\/strong> It does not simply make the goal cheaper \u2014 it makes the outcome less certain, which is why the cautious figure moves the other way.<\/li><li><strong>The model is slightly optimistic at the extremes.<\/strong> It treats each month as independent, with no mean reversion, no extreme events and no correlation between periods. Real markets have all three.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n<!-- goal-inversion:start -->\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Does more risk mean saving less?<\/h2>\n<p><strong>At the median, yes. At high confidence, no \u2014 and the numbers cross.<\/strong> The planner&#8217;s four bands, on its default scenario \u2014 50,000 BHD in today&#8217;s money over 10 years at 2% inflation (60,950 BHD in future money), nothing saved yet. Monthly contribution required, in dinars:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table alrasly-table\"><table class=\"is-comparison\"><thead><tr><th>Band<\/th><th class=\"is-num\">Expected return<\/th><th class=\"is-num\">Volatility<\/th><th class=\"is-num\">At 50%<\/th><th class=\"is-num\">At 80%<\/th><th class=\"is-num\">At 90%<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Conservative<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"is-num\">4%<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">6%<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">415<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">458<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">481<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Balanced<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"is-num\">6.5%<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">10%<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">367<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">433<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">473<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Risk-taker<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"is-num\">8%<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">15%<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">347<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">445<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">507<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Adventurous<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"is-num\">9.5%<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">20%<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">331<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">462<\/td><td class=\"is-num\">549<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<p>From <strong>Conservative<\/strong> to <strong>Adventurous<\/strong>: the median figure <strong>falls<\/strong> from 415 to 331, and the 90% figure <strong>rises<\/strong> from 481 to 549 \u2014 the added volatility outweighs the added return. At 80% the cheapest band is <strong>Balanced<\/strong>, neither the riskiest nor the safest.<\/p>\n<div class=\"alrasly-callout\"><p><strong>Why this matters:<\/strong> every other goal calculator implies that more risk always means saving less, which is only true at the median. Someone with a fixed, short-dated goal is given exactly the wrong advice by that implication. The calculator produces this table for your own goal.<\/p><\/div>\n<!-- goal-inversion:end -->\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull alrasly-gsec has-ground-background-color has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60)\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n\n<p class=\"alrasly-disclaimer wp-block-paragraph\">For illustration only, and not investment advice. Nothing you enter is saved.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Savings goal calculator Say how much you want and when you want it, and the calculator gives you the monthly amount that gets you there \u2014 with the probability attached. It answers with a range rather than one confident figure, because a single number about the future is a guess wearing a suit. What it [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"parent":2403,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-tool","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-10171","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alrasly.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/10171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alrasly.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alrasly.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alrasly.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10171"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/alrasly.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/10171\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10219,"href":"https:\/\/alrasly.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/10171\/revisions\/10219"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alrasly.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2403"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alrasly.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}